The Thing that Doesn’t Mix Well With Investing

There was a further escalation in Israel over the weekend. It always feels a bit crass to talk about investing when lives are being lost, but part of what I do is help investors contextualize awful world events.

Intuitively, you might think that geopolitical events would impact the market. It’s true that in general, investors tend to sell risk assets first and ask questions later. But over time, the market cares more about earnings and less about everything else.

That’s evident in this chart that shows how the S&P 500 has reacted to geopolitical events one year later.

With so many lines, the numbers can get a bit goofy. Here are the facts, Jack. The median return is 13%. The average return is 5%. But if you exclude the Yom Kippur war, which occurred in the midst of a secular bear market, the average return jumps to 8%.

The bottom line is this: The world is a scary place—it always has been and always will be. Do not let that come between you and your portfolio.

Josh and I are covering this and much more on tonight’s What Are Your Thoughts?

Now go talk about it.